Tomorrow is Super Tuesday and a big day for presidential candidates, with each party holding 11 state primaries and caucuses– the most on a single day during this campaign. This also concludes the initial phase of primaries. In the past 20 years, the victor of Super Tuesday eventually moved on to secure their respective party’s presidential nomination. So the pressure is on as candidates vie for votes. Bing Predicts has crunched the data, and forecasts Donald Trump winning all but one of the Super Tuesday Republican primaries, and Hillary Clinton seizing the momentum from her recent victory in South Carolina to winning all but one of the of Democratic primaries.
In anticipation of this big day, we also are enriching the Bing Elections experience with the launch of our new Search Wave feature, which lets you take a deep dive into search volume for each candidate. This experience joins our other interactive tools including the Bing Political Index (BPI), our Election Timeline, and Primary Results experience, to give you a comprehensive look at the 2016 race.
Search Wave: Who’s Riding the Wave in Your State?
You may follow all the reports about where the candidates stand through polls, interviews and rallies, but if you want to get an even closer look at how the contenders are capturing the attention of the nation, try Search Wave. Powered by Bing Predicts, Search Wave is a window into public search interest for each candidate. It breaks down candidate searches by state, age and gender so giving a unique view at how the candidates are stacking up.
See the top-searched candidates at a glance, plus the age and gender breakdowns for these searches.
Filter by top Republicans or Democrats and look at a state-by-state breakdown.
You can also examine individual candidates in detail.
Search Wave uses anonymized and aggregate data and does not obtain or use any personal information in its reports. Search Wave measures volume, not sentiment, which means that being controversial or provocative—which may result in an increased search volume—counts as much as being popular.
Super Tuesday Predictions
In addition to Search Wave, we’re also unveiling our Super Tuesday predictions. In February we got 7 out of 8 party primaries correctly. On the Democratic side, Bing Predicts forecasted a narrow victory for Clinton in Iowa and a victory in Nevada, plus a win for Sanders in New Hampshire. For the GOP, Bing predicted Trump to win New Hampshire and South Carolina, but missed Cruz’s marginal victory in Iowa.
On March 1, there are 11 primaries and caucuses: Alabama, Alaska (Republican caucuses), Arkansas, Colorado (Democratic caucuses), Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota (Republican and Democratic caucuses), Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia. What should you expect for Super Tuesday then?
Bing predicts Donald Trump to win almost all the Republican primaries and caucuses held on March 1. The one exception is Texas, as Ted Cruz is expected to win his home state.
The outlook for the Democratic race is somewhat similar: Hillary Clinton is predicted to win 10 out of 11 states, the exception being Vermont—Sanders’s home state—which he is expected to win. Bing Predicts Clinton to win the Super Tuesday southern states (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia) with more than 60 percent of the votes. She is expected to win Colorado, Massachusetts and Minnesota by a smaller margin. Interestingly, Bing’s predictive models showed a narrow Sanders win in these three states until a couple of days ago, but the impact of Clinton’s decisive victory in South Carolina on public opinion tilted the prediction towards her. Sanders is still predicted to take his home state Vermont by a large margin (65 percent of the votes).
To create these predictions, our machine-learned predictive models use data from polls, prediction markets, and anonymized and aggregated search-engine queries plus social-media posts to prognosticate the winners of the Republican and Democratic nominations in each state. Note that Bing predicts the candidates who wins the popular vote in a given state’s primary, or caucus, rather than the candidate the delegates will eventually vote at the party’s national convention.
– The Bing Elections Team
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